Search expansion hypothesis: Why ChatGPT isn’t replacing Google - yet
When ChatGPT exploded onto the scene, one prediction dominated: Google’s era was ending. Why search when an AI can give you the answer instantly?
A recent Semrush study challenges that idea. The data shows Google’s usage hasn’t declined among ChatGPT adopters. In fact, it’s holding steady - and in some cases, usage even increased.
So, is Google untouchable? Not quite. Stability today doesn’t guarantee resilience tomorrow.
What the data tells us
Semrush analysed millions of U.S. desktop search sessions, comparing people before and after they started using ChatGPT. The results are clear:
Google usage didn’t drop. Search sessions remained stable.
People use each tool for different needs. Google still dominates navigation and broad research, while ChatGPT is used for creativity, exploration, and context.
ChatGPT hasn’t replaced Google, it’s expanded the way people search.
This is what’s called the Expansion Hypothesis. Instead of one tool substituting for another, new habits are forming around using both.
Why the future could look different
Right now, Google isn’t bleeding users. But the study only shows us where behaviour is today - not where it’s heading.
History tells us user behaviour changes fast when a better experience emerges. Smartphones didn’t gradually replace landlines, they exploded. Streaming didn’t nibble at TV, it transformed it.
That same pattern could unfold here.
User experience is decisive. If AI platforms keep delivering faster, more personalised, and more trustworthy results, reliance on Google will decline.
Innovation risk is real. If Google can’t keep pace with OpenAI, Perplexity, and Anthropic, the shift accelerates.
Market share erosion would be seismic. Even a small dip matters when Google processes 14 billion searches a day.
Why user experience is the battleground
The real fight isn’t about “Google vs ChatGPT.” It’s about which platform becomes the first place people turn for answers.
Google is still the best at pulling up sources and navigating the web.
ChatGPT is better at simplifying, contextualising, and creating new connections.
If LLMs close the gap on comprehensiveness, they’ll win more of the day-to-day questions. And once people change their habits, they rarely go back.
What this means for brands and marketers
This isn’t just about search engines. It’s about visibility. The channels people use to find information are diversifying, and brands need to meet audiences in both places.
Optimise for today’s Google-first reality. Traditional SEO still drives traffic and discovery.
Build visibility into AI platforms now. That could mean creating content that’s cited in AI summaries, training data, or zero-click results.
Plan for fewer clicks. If AI reduces referral traffic, brand authority and mentions will matter as much as rankings.
Test and learn early. The brands experimenting with AI visibility now will be the ones ahead when usage shifts.
Closing Thought
Google hasn’t fallen - but its dominance isn’t guaranteed forever. For now, AI and search sit side by side. The tipping point will come when one delivers a noticeably better user experience.
If Google falters on innovation while AI platforms keep improving, people will change the way they search. Stability today doesn’t erase the inevitability of disruption tomorrow.
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